Question:
What year do you think self driving cars will be readily available for most in the U.S?
anonymous
2017-01-07 03:50:31 UTC
I say give it 5 years, 10 at the latest. People saying 20 are crazy, all cops will be replaced by robots by then since they're already beginning to invent things relating to that.
Three answers:
?
2017-01-07 19:50:40 UTC
Never. What are on the road now are dangerous toys that have killed two people and been tossed out of California.



Automation of systems that complex is vastly more important than the public realizes, and even the people trying to design them get rebuffed. The automated baggage system at the Denver Airport, after a $660 million investment, never worked... and it is many orders of magnitude simpler than self-driving cars on public roads. I have spent a lifetime in high tech; maintaining and repairing computer controlled equipment for more than 40 years (46 years if you include analog computers). For the last six years I have been deeply involved in automation of the electric distribution system in our town and it is mostly working as designed... but self-driving cars will be a much tougher nut to crack.



To meet basic design standards they will need redundant sensors and actuators and 2-out-of-3 control computers, just as advanced aircraft do. Similarly, they will have to be designed to exacting standards, ISO compliant, and will have to be serviced, including periodic inspections, by certified technicians. As in aircraft, parts will have to come from certified sources. It is hard to imagine such a thing being sold below $100,000 in today's money or being maintained for under $10,000 per year. Those would be very lowball estimates. A limousine and driver would be cheaper. For that matter, we have no idea how insurance would work. Are those who direct a driverless car to where they want to go responsible if the machine they don't control mows down a crowd of schoolchildren?



The real killer is almost nobody wants one at any price. See the responses to my two questions about them in the sources. They are right, you know... it is essentially the world's most expensive taxi.



Self-driving cars are a delusion - fortunately.
?
2017-01-07 10:44:59 UTC
Readily available and affordable two very different things.

NO ONE has yet figured out what you might need to pay for Insurance.



It will take a few years just to build the factories to build them.

Establish a network of qualified service people to repair and maintain them.

Existing car factories take many months to change to a new design.

10 years is a FAST guess. The 20 years is a more reasonable time for there to be LOTS of them.

You seriously expect ROBO COP to respond to your break in or traffic accident.

There are about 255 MILLION cars in the USA.



They currently make about 10-15 million cars per year now in the USA. The cars might be built in some other country and people in other countries may want them too.



It will be more than 10 years. Maybe not as long as 20



Half of the cars in USA are seven years old or more. The other half will not just be scraped to buy the new gadget.
Nightworks
2017-01-07 17:31:02 UTC
Self-driving cars have been around for over 50 years. If it's taken that long for people like you to even notice them, it will be at least another 50 years before they become "readily available" (if that ever happens at all...).


This content was originally posted on Y! Answers, a Q&A website that shut down in 2021.
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